Prospective studies, including simulation techniques and scenario building heave made considerable progress. Their credibility is based on retrospective analysis of projections made 10 to 15 years earlier.
When there was extensive speculation about the North-South dialogue in the late 1970s, I was, on my part, of the opinion that such a dialogue would lead nowhere unless prior to structural changes in the international system. Basically, my assumption then, was that the countries of the North would do everything in their power to maintain the status quo and that their opposition to the necessary changes would delay the required transformations thus paving the way for outright ruptures in the long run.
Even since I left international public office in 1976, I have always argued that the ingredients of great ruptures in the North as well as in the South would be brewing throughout the 1980s.(2) I have always emphasized the importance of
socio-cultural values as one of the major criteria in any prospective analysis exercise. In my experience with international cooperation, when I served as a senior UNESCO official, I became convinced that Western as well as East European countries were always on the defensive when dealing with values other than the judeo-christian ones. There was a total lack of cultural communication as there was no attempt to understand the culture of the "others" or to show any respect for their inherent values.
Before making any projection about the future of the Arab world, it is necessary to undertake an analysis of the world problematique. In my opinion, the most serious crisis we are faced with is primarily an ethical one, as it affects the values and objectives of society as well as the ultimate pursuits of its members. There is a crisis because there is no global vision and no broad social project commensurate with the challenges facing contemporary society. This applies to the South as well as to the North, although the causes may differ.
In the North, the crisis is the result of excessive materialism and idealization of competition and profit, whereas in the South, it is due to the failure of development models which have turned out to be incompatible with the social, economic and cultural environments. This ethical crisis is further heightened by the fact the Humanity stands at a critical stage of History resulting from outstanding technological advances and achievements.
1990 statistics show that four scientific articles are published every minute. Our mental structure and our institutions cannot cope yet with a scientific and technological output of this magnitude. Where moral values, lifestyles and cultural trends are involved, the gap is widening between technological progress and social advancement.
Before addressing the future of the Arab region as an integral part of the Third World, let us consider, very briefly, the attitude of the West which has a determining impact on this future. The new and worrisome fact is that the West is frightened. Nowadays, the word fear has been recurring repeatedly in books, newspaper editorials, magazines, radio and television programmes and even official reports. We just cannot afford to ignore the fear factor in our analysis of international relations. First, there is fear of the growing population in the South, especially that the West accounts for only 20% of the world population whereas it controls 80% of the material wealth of the planet. What is more is that the 20% figure is expected to slide to 15% in 30 years.
Another source of fear is of a socio-cultural or even civilizational nature. But it is not inspired only by the Islamic world with its 1.2 billion inhabitants (population experts are unanimous in expecting a sharp increase in the size of the Muslim population within the next four decades. By then Muslims will account for 40% of the world population).
Japan, too, arouses fears in the West, not only because of its economic and technological performance but also because it managed to prosper without being tied to Western values, thus proving that "modernization" does not necessarily require Westernization. Indeed, Japan is a living evidence that any civilization can adjust to the needs of modern times without repudiating its own values, its language and its history.
Even within the Western world, the dramatic changes underway point to the fact that people are growing weary and skeptical about the liberal economic systems and values which were initiated a decade ago by Reagan and Thatcher and which are still in force under President George Bush. Now there is growing unrest and resentment throughout the Western world about that over-materialistic experience. Thousands of young demonstrators take to the street in protest against pollution and nuclear experiments.
Let us go back to the Third World and to the Arab region and try to see what challenges should be accommodated in the scenarios being contemplated for the next few years. Simulating scenarios involves at least three alternatives: the first implies continuation of the status quo; it is the continuity and stability scenario. Thus, for instance, the current US action in the Gulf can only be attributed to the Americans' determination to back up "stability" and keep the situation unchanged whatever the consequences. Therefore, whenever there is talk of "stability" at the UN Organization or in the Third World countries, it means that the real objective is actually the upkeep of the status quo. The staunchest supporters of this scenario are the United States and Western Europe, as well as financial institutions such as the World Bank and the IMF.
Since the early 1980s, I have always argued that it was impossible for this scenario to prevail indefinitely, for the simple reason that the world is constantly changing and that no one can stifle the thrust of evolution in any society. We know that the West, with the support of some Third World leaders from Africa, Asia and the Arab World, is doing its utmost to back up the status quo scenario. However, it is still unlikely to last more than five years. By the year 1995, the dramatic changes which will take place in the Third World will mark the beginning of the end of this scenario.
The second alternative is the "reformist scenario." Its role is to ensure minimum stability and provide for the introduction of basic reforms. Unlike the first scenario which stands no chance to survive beyond the foreseeable future, the "reformist scenario" can be successful in the medium term, provided the proposed reforms are enforced swiftly and in a way which responds to the people's aspiration for genuine, concrete and unrestricted democracy and for the respect of all civil liberties and public freedom. Fulfillment of those aspirations is definitely the first priority.
The struggle against illiteracy is another pressing challenge which must be addressed urgently, because most of our problems arise from the fact that 60% of the Third World population are ignorant. We just cannot make it successfully into the 21st century unless we engage in a concerted effort to remove the scourge of illiteracy and promote scientific and technological research.
The success of the "reformist scenario" also depends on minimum redistribution of wealth within Third World countries. Since 1975, the economic gap has grown wider between the rich and the poor within a given country in the South than it has between the North and the South.
If we are to be taken seriously in our criticism of the prevailing world order, we must first work for the redistribution of wealth within our countries and combat the scourge of corruption.
The "reformist scenario" must also address the role which should be assumed by the educated elite. There are, in my view, a few problems directly connected with the role being played by our intellectuals, some of whom are still displaying a certain degree of cultural alienation. Although they are politically dedicated to their respective countries, they do not exhibit the same level of emancipation in their altitude towards other value systems.
Internationally, the recent events in the Gulf tend to confirm that the world order is going through dramatic changes. An experienced analyst cannot take seriously what Mr. Bush and his allies call the new world order. It is, in fact, merely a transitional stage in international relations. It will last until the end of the century at best. In short, the proposed world order is but a plot against the South.
Most international institutions, as it turned out, were unable to even contemplate the options envisaged under the "reformist scenario." This is why they have lost much of their credibility.
For a man like me who dedicated most of his life to international cooperation, it was sad to see how the West was trying to impose its will and its hegemony. Its ludicrous manoeuvering and arm twisting in the Security Council was a pathetic display of might and arrogance. As a peace-loving person and as a former official in an international organization, I was deeply disturbed by the behaviour and attitude of the UN Secretary General who failed to fulfill his duties as defined by the UN Charter. More specifically, Article 42 which served as a basis for the adoption of Security Council Resolution 678, states clearly that its implementation is subject to the conditions provided for under Articles 46 and 47 of the Charter.
Accordingly, the United States had no right to trigger off the war, as it did on January 17, so long as there was no new resolution to this effect from the Security Council. Indeed, the latter should have convened again to see to what extent the provisions of Articles 46 and 47 of the Charter had been met. Even then, no country, be it a permanent member of the Security Council, may take unilateral action before ascertaining that there was full compliance with the procedures set out in Articles 46 and 47. In fact those provisions have never been implemented in the history of the United Nations. Article 47 provides for the setting up, under the Security Council supervision, of a chief-of-staff committee in charge of advising and assisting the Security Council on military matters. What I am saying therefore is that no country had the right, from a legal viewpoint, to start the war on the basis of Security Council Resolution 678. I am still hoping that the Secretary General of the United Nations will do something to ensure that law and peace prevail.
After the American Diktat and the ensuing disappointments, one can justifiably wonder about what is left of the credibility of the United Nations and the Security Council as well as the UN Secretary General.
As for regional institutions, one can only regret the total fiasco of the Organization of African Unity which is still regarded and treated as a private club by some African leaders. In fact, the OAU is still governed according to a colonial principle advocating the intangibility of the borders laid out by the colonizers. It is just not possible for Africa to make a successful entry into the 21st century with a population of 700 million scattered over 50 countries. Many of these countries will go bankrupt by the turn of the century, although the concept of bankruptcy does not apply to states under international law.
Similarly, the League of Arab States is braced for a doubtful future. Since the American intervention in the Gulf, President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt has displayed an increasingly domineering attitude towards the other members of the League. The way he made a mock of the procedural aspects at the emergency session of the Arab Summit Conference, is a point in case. The transfer of the Arab League headquarters from Tunis to Cairo, provided further evidence of this attitude and there are other indications which point to the likely dismantlement of this institution which was established in 1945.
As for the Arab Maghreb Union (UMA), its role so far has been to arrange for endless meetings of experts and lack lustre ceremonies. However, the Gulf events have virtually brought it to a standstill. Not only has the UMA institution failed to live up to the expectations of the Maghrebian populations, but, given its current set up and the prevailing mood, I am afraid it might defeat its object and become an obstacle to the achievement of genuine unity among the peoples of the Maghreb.
Given the above, one is inclined to wonder about the chances of success of the "reformist scenario." At the outset I must admit that this scenario does not enjoy the favour of international institutions. One of them, the World Bank, is responsible either directly or indirectly for the hundreds of victims who died in the violence which was triggered off by the indiscriminatory implementation of its and other monetary institutions' prescriptions.
It is unfortunate that most Third World governments should enforce so readily and unreservedly the decisions issued by such organizations, thus reducing the prospects for a successful "reformist scenario." Yet we should never lose sight of the objective reasons which should stimulate people in their struggle against the "stability scenario." As a matter of fact, I believe that Africa and Asia are going to experience within the next few years large-scale changes which are bound to fulfil the longstanding aspirations of their peoples for freedom, democracy and social justice.
The third scenario under consideration is one where it is assumed that sweeping changes and transformations are inevitable. In fact, the three scenarios will eventually materialize in a combined and concomitant manner in the medium term. Thus, the Third World will still have to bear with the "status quo scenario" for another three or four years, although the social cost this time will be much higher than before. We will get to see some countries freeing themselves gradually from the tutelage of internal and external forces which are bent on perpetuating the "stability scenario." These countries will strive to uphold the "reformist scenario" in preparation for the "transformation scenario" which is the only viable alternative left for the Third World to face up to the challenges of the 21st century.
I believe that in the medium term (10 years), the "South" will have made the necessary adjustment and started catering for the needs of its population in terms of economic prosperity, social justice and democracy.
Just after the first decade of the next century, the process will be set in motion for the fulfillment of economic needs and the achievement of scientific and technological self reliance as well as the institutionalization of democracy. Such developments will mean the end of the "post-colonial" era which began with the advent of the "new word order" in 1990.
One must carefully observe the changing trends world wide and try to assess their impact on North-South relations and on development strategies in Third World countries. These are determining factors which must be duly reckoned with before one can make any serious projections about the future of the Arab World. Obviously there are plenty of problems which are specific to the Arab world. These include the Palestinian issue, the Balkanization of the region, wide inequalities in terms of income between and within the countries of the region, failure of development models implemented so far, lack of vision and consensus on basic long term options, poverty, illiteracy, inadequate interest in scientific research, cultural alienation, absence of democracy and gross violations of civil liberties and human rights and many other shortcomings and deficiencies.
Given such a gloomy picture, any support for the "status quo" scenario would tantamount to self-destruction. How could we be made to believe that it would only take a few substantial reforms to make up for the time lost and for a future which is in serious jeopardy? The real problem is one of mental structure and of the algorithms which we must yet design and develop in order to cater for our own survival. The real challenges lie in our mode of thinking and in the way we set objectives and priorities, develop prospective strategies and secure political support to turn them into tangible efforts.
Given the above, I cannot help being a little pessimistic about the
prospects for the next 4 or 5 years, where the situation is likely to deteriorate
further both in our countries and at the international level. But my relative
pessimism for the short term makes me basically optimistic about the medium
term (10 to 15 years). The radical transformations which are anticipated
under the last scenario are bound to take place. It is written in the fast
moving history of mankind.
Al-Alam, Rabat, January 2, 1991.
2. 2 Comments in support of this argument were made by the author as part of his contribution to the French Television "Dossiers de l'écran", programme focussing on the topic "the coming decade," June 24, 1980.