China
in
the twenty-first century
China has been the host of the tenth world congress of future studies held in beijing from 3 to 8 september 1988. It has thus shown its concern and interest in outlooks for the future and particularly that of its preparednessfor facing the challenges of the twentieth-firsty century.
The beijing conference has drawn more than 250 participants from over 70 countries. It was sponsored by the world federation of future studies and the chinese societe for future studies created in 1978. The chinese participation in this important meeting was of a high academic standing and politically representative of the chinese thinking about the future of the country.
A very impressive new indicator of the changes taking place in china is the number of young chinese under 30 years of age who participated actively, responsibly and without any inhibition in the deliberations of the congress with an unreserved pride on the part of their elders. To underline the importance which China accords to future studies in general and to its own future in particular, the premier of China received during more than 90 minutes the members of the executive council of the world future studies federation on september 7. The present author was one of the delegates who attended this meeting with premier Li Peng. One could not but be impressed by the chinese visions for the medium and long term ranges. Visions which are the expression of a great assurance in the future perspectives of the country as well as of a realistic pragmatism not devoid of great expectations but in which the traces of dogmatic ideology are practically inexistent.
The first point which the premier emphasized is that the future of China is linked to its present and its past. The future must therefore take into account the fact that China is a developing country. The future of China is being thought out at two horizons: (1) that of the end of the twentieth century and (2) the year 2050. The main objective for the year 2000 is to attain a gnp of $1000 dollars per capita (the purchasing power of this amount in China is not comparable with other countries) and to improve the quality of life. By the year 2050, "China plans to reach the living standards of a medium developed country".
In the words of China's premier, "development does not only englobe material improvements but also of the spirit and of culture: education, the satisfaction of aspirations of the people and the building up of a democratic system." li peng said that the new slogan was "we allow some people to get rich first, otherwise we may stay poor forever".
China has not only opted for a future with a specific content, it has also outlined the means by which it inteds to meet the objectives it has set out for itself. these means are a new policy of reform and openness. the premier said "we intend to retain the better part of our experience while benefiting from the better part of the experience of the developed countries". peng li stressed however that a change of the socialist system was "out of question".
What China is trying to do is to "move from a centralized economy toa planned commodity economy". This is the main key for understanding the reform under way and which has "reached a critical stage" according to china's premier. this critical stage concerns the revision of a number of important policies such as those affecting the pricing system, the rate of inflation, the development of entrepreneurship and a much greater reliance on advancedtechnologies.
There is a good deal of pragmatism in the chinese approach this is why they are both cautious and open. they do not underestimate the difficulties ahead. "We need understanding and support of our people" said premier li peng, "China is facing a serious problem of unfair income levels and it must introduce all of the new technologies while escaping some of the corrupt manners which can come along with them."
The new commodity economy necessitates price adjustments to
encourage investments in productive sectors, to give incentives
to the farmers to produce grains and to reduce the consumption of
energy. the price of travel by rail has not changed from its
level of 1937. the price of grains are very low and the farmers
are moving to the production of more lucrative agricultural
activities such as fruit growing. China is now the first world
producer of cereals - about 400 million tons per year - but when
divided by its population this only leaves 400 kilos per person.
"An imperative is to adjust our prices within the period of
the five year plan... it may however take longer" said
premier li peng. the question is not only of pricing but also of
new pricing mecanisms. some prices will continue to be determined
by the government while others will be left to the mecanisms of
the market while premier li peng was outlining these new economic
policies to some of the participants in the 10th world congress
on future studies, zhao ziyang, the secretary general of the
chinese communist party central committee, was telling the
american publisher frank gibney, "things were different when
i was premier, i do not directly deal with economic affairs but
concentrate my efforts on research and investigation so that i
can discuss major policy issues with my colleagues at party
meetings."This statement confirms the present preoccupation
for separating the functions of the state and the government from
those of the party. the party concentrating on "policy
elaboration" while leaving "policy operation" to
the government, to use the distinction made by a chinese
university professorduring the future studies world congress. One
of the striking features of the new China is the relatively small
amount of ideological references and dogmatic expressions in the
new political vocabulary. another new feature is the emphasis
which is put on political, social and cultural rights of the
individuals while still reconizing the importance of these rights
at the level of the collectivities and of the state. the priority
is now clearly given to the building up of a middle class with
entrepreneurship capabilities.
For the premier of china the main concern in the medium and long
term is that of peace and development in that order although both
are interlinked. these are conditions for achieving the long term
objective which is to achieve a higher form and degree of
democracy with more substantive content in the political life of
the country.
The above comments of the premier of china and the impressions one gathers from a highly stimulative world congress on future studies in which most of the attention was focussed on the interventions of the chinese specialists must be understood in the very specific and unique situation of china. one is dealing with a country where the sheer proportion of size, more than one thousand millions, which makes not only quantitative but also major qualitative differences as compared with most of the rest of the countries of the third world with the possible exception of india. china also has the longest recorded cultural history of the world and a time span of human civilization which enables to tackle problems in quite a different manner from the rest of the world. finally china has undergone a long revolution at a very heavy human cost and is now trying to capitalize on the sacrifices it has made and to draw lessons from its past errors. It is doing it in a very original manner as only the chinese can.
The very probable success of china in one of the greatest endeavours of human history aiming at the improvement of the quality of life of over one billion people cannot but have positive consequences for the rest of mankind and of the countries of the third world in particular. nothwithstanding the possibility of a third world war which may annihilate the human race and make any prediction more than futile, and regardless of what further progress the developped countries may be able to make in the next sixty years, china will be by the middle of the twentieth first century the leading political, economic, scientific and cultural power in the world.
The keen interest it is showing in the study of the future and
the seriousness with which it is taking it into account enables
china to develop visions which will no doubt be turned from the
realm of ideas to that of concrete realizations. one can only
hope that it will be capable of keeping the sense of modesty
which enabled it to make such a fast progress and that it will
not easily forget what it insists on emphasizing now, namely she
constitutes a part of the third world. the respective knowledge
of china by the rest of the third world and that of the latter by
china are far from being adequate. it is a problem of direct
cultural communication and of mutual understanding. any
improvement in these area can only positively help the
practically non existent north-south dialogue by giving it more
balance leading thereby to a juster and more equitable world.
this is why the fate of china has a direct bearing on the
economic and social development of the rest of the world as well
as on world peace.
© 
Genève 1996. Webeditor