I feel honored to be amongst such a distinguished assembly of
men and women who have contributed so much to the identification
of the problems besetting the Islamic World. The subject under
consideration is of a highly strategic nature, especially at a
time when the world is going through sweeping upheavals and
disruptions which have been anticipated for years by specialists
of future studies. I therefore have no illusions about the
awesome task awaiting us here and am fully aware of the
complexity of the subject.
I have been working in the field of future studies for over 25
years and have participated in approximately 200 international
conferences and seminars related to this subject. It is the first
time, I think, that an international symposium is entirely
devoted to the identification and analysis of current and
anticipated problems related to Islam. This is a sign of maturity
of the Islamic world and similar initiatives must be encouraged
in the future with the hope of initiating and supporting concrete
research projects in this important area.
Given the countries of origin of the participants in this
symposium, I hope that the sponsoring center will consider
extending its activities beyond the scope of the Arab World.
After all, Arabs account for only 20% of the Muslim population
the world over. When dealing with Islam we must all beware of
ethnocentric temptations, for Islam calls for diversity which is
conducive to unity. This prescription is enshrined in the holy
Quran which says "O mankind! Lo! We have created you male
and female, and have made you nations and tribes that ye may know
one another. Lo! the noblest of you, in the sight of Allah, is
the best in conduct." (XLIX, 13).
Accordingly, I consider this symposium to be a sort of rehearsal
for other meetings to come and which will be more representative
of the realities and potentialities of the Islamic world. We
should therefore avoid the confusing generalization which has led
the West to apply the specific reality of the Arab region to all
the countries of the Islamic World. This is not to be regarded as
a critical stand against this symposium, but rather as an
expression of a personal reservation concerning possible attempts
to confer universal validity on the proceedings and findings of
this meeting.
I. THE IMPORTANCE OF FUTURE STUDIES
As we are addressing the future prospects of Islam, allow me,
first, to clarify some Islamic concepts. In Islam, a clear
distinction must be made between the arabic word "Al
Ghayb" (unknown) which is within the realm of God, and the
word "Mustaqbal" (future) which implies the
anticipation of developments arising from what we do or fail to
do today. We are not talking about prophecies but about
forecasts. In fact, the word "mustaqbal" does not occur
in the Quran. Instead, the Holy Book refers to one of its
derivatives which is "mustaqbil." In one of the Quranic
verses, it is said:
"Then, when they beheld it as a dense cloud coming toward
their valleys, they said: Here is a cloud bringing us rain. Nay,
but it is that which ye did seek to hasten, a rain wherein is
painful torment" (XLXI-24).
The Quran abounds with references to the notions of perception,
outlook and future:
"Oh ye who believe! Observe your duty to Allah. And let
every soul look to that which it sent on before for the
morrow."
(LIX-18)
"Have they not considered the dominion of the heavens and
the earth, and what things Allah has created, and that it may be
that their own term drew night? In what fact after this will they
believe"? (IXL-18).
"Have they not seen how We have appointed the night that
they may rest therein, and the day sight-giving? Lo! therein
verily are portents for a people who believe. And (remind them
of) the Day when the Trumpet will be blown, and all who are in
the heavens and the earth, will start in fear, save him whom
Allah wills. And all come unto Him, humbled. And you will see the
hills you deemed solid flying with the flight of clouds: the
doing of Allah who perfected all things. Lo! He is informed of
what ye do" (XXVII-86,87,88).
All these verses from the Holy Quran call on us to make the best
possible use of the present and to carefully and intelligently
prepare for the future; the future meaning the rest of our life
on earth and the hereafter. Here are other Quranic verses to the
point:
"And let every soul look to that which it sent on before for
the morrow" (LIX-18).
"Send him with us tomorrow that he may enjoy himself and
play. And Lo! we shall take good care of him" (XII-12).
"And say not of anything: Lo! I shall do that
tomorrow," (XVIII-23).
"No soul knows what it will earn tomorrow, and no soul knows
in what land it will die" (XXXII-34).
"Tomorrow they will know who is the rash liar"
(LIV-26).
It should be noted that, whereas the first of the above verses
calls for exploring the future with a view to strengthening the
believer's faith in God, the third and fourth verses dismiss any
form of prophecy or divination.
In analyzing the above verses, we realize that the Quran advises
against making presumptuous claims of prescience and
foreknowledge, but it does recommend that we make projections and
work out different options in order to enhance our ability to
cope with the requirements of the future and to improve our
well-being. Therefore the future should be approached in a
pluralistic manner ("futures") thus leaving open a wide
range of options.
Islam, I believe, is a "vision" of life on earth and
also in the hereafter. It carries a message which calls on Man to
seek command of his own fate and to adopt, for this purpose, a
dynamic approach in his political, economic, social and cultural
initiatives. Indeed, change is an essential ingredient for a
better future. Allah, in the Quran, says: "Lo! Allah
changeth not the condition of a folk until they (first) change
that which is in their hearts" (XIII-11).
One must therefore avoid making any confusion between the concept
of "Bid'a" (heresy) and "Ibda'a"
(innovation). The first is an opinion or attitude which is in
violation of the basic tenets of Islam. The second is, on the
contrary, an invitation to introduce changes and innovations in
order to stimulate the community's development and vitality. Any
living organism which does not accept change is doomed to
extinction. This applies to the human being and to his
environment as well.
Those who are opposed to change are simply afraid to lose their
privileges. That is why they tend to equate change with heresy.
This conservative attitude was a determining factor in the
decline of the Islamic world and the proliferation of its
problems. Attempts to check the imagination and stifle innovative
efforts began in the 10th and 11th centuries when so-called
religious scholars "closed" the "door" of the
"Ijtihad" (research and investigation).
How are we going to make up for lost time? It is in searching for
an answer that one may realize the importance of the study of the
future and the necessity of scouting and scrutinizing the
"horizons". The Quran says in this connection:
"We shall show them Our portents on the horizons and within
themselves until it will be manifest unto them that it is the
Truth. Doth not thy Lord suffice, since He is witness over all
things?" (XLI-53).
The Prophet Muhammad always looked forward to the future and very
rarely looked back on the past. It is even said that when he
walked he always looked ahead and never returned his head. Islam
is a faith and a way of life. It is also an exploratory vision of
life on earth and in the hereafter. It is our outlooks that
determine our deeds for which we are answerable to ourselves, to
society and to God. In Islam Man, whatever he does, is mindful of
the impact of his action on the rest of his life as well as on
his fate in the Last Judgement.
The Prophet was reported as saying that Islam erases the past
(sins), meaning that the new Muslim convert should no longer
worry about his previous sins and must, instead, think about the
future. It also means that he will be held responsible and
answerable for his present and future deeds. The Quran says in
this connection "And let every soul look to that which it
sent on before for the morrow."
These preliminary remarks are meant to ward off any misconception
about Islam which portrays it as being fatalistic to the extent
that individuals and society as a whole have no control over
themselves. But, as Sheikh Mohamed Belarbi Alaoui put it 40 years
ago, we must clean up our own brains thoroughly from the garbage
which we have accumulated, before venturing to confront the
challenges of the future.
The study of the future is a fairly recent exercise which began
at the end of World War II. The first future surveys were carried
out by the Rand Corporation for the Pentagon in 1946. That is why
there is a fairly close relationship between strategic studies
and future studies. It was in the late '60s that future studies
began as a distinct activity. Nowadays two-thirds of research
work on the future is carried out by military institutions and
multinational corporations. Scientific research activities are
funded along the same lines.
Future studies are thriving in the industrialized nations which
account for 97% of world expenditures on that activity,
particularly in the fields of training, documentation, scientific
research and its applications. With 80% of the world population,
the Third World accounts for less than 3% of the output in the
areas of future studies. In fact, the under-estimation of the
strategic value of the future is one of the most significant
symptoms of under-development. I have always found it difficult
to explain a seemingly paradoxical rule whereby the more acute
and pressing a phenomenon is, the more we need a long-term
approach to deal with it efficiently. Development actually begins
when people have secured the means to ponder over their future
and reach a consensus on the type of society they wish to build.
Future studies are not a science in themselves, although they
make use of exact and social sciences. It is the study from an
open perspective and on the basis of alternatives and options, of
the various developments of a given situation and of the possible
consequences of a particular decision on these developments. This
is why we always talk about the futures and not one future. The
basic purpose of this exercise is to set desirable objectives and
see how to achieve them in the medium or long term by acting upon
the present.
When Einstein was asked why he was interested in the future, he
simply answered, "I intend to spend the rest of my life
there." One of the major functions of future studies is of a
pedagogical and educational nature, in that it changes mental
attitudes and contributes to reducing the time needed to keep
abreast with and make use of a rapidly expanding knowledge.
I have always emphasized that cultural values an essential
ingredients of development. There is no doubt that Islam is a
powerful factor of change and innovation and as such it is bound
to play a vital role in the evolution of our society. This
development is all the more likely as more and more people,
especially the young, have a thirst for spiritual values to
compensate for the excessive materialism of contemporary society.
When young muslims return to their cultural sources, it is
because they are seeking guidance from their endogenous values.
The future that the Arab-Islamic world is looking for depends on
the revival of Islam in its innovative acceptation, not on Islam
of blind imitation which led to the fall of a once brilliant
civilization. If the Prophet Mohammed and his companions had
failed to imagine and visualize the future, there would probably
not be as many as 1,200 million Muslims in the world today.
II. CONTEMPORARY REALITIES
A. Distinct features of today's world
The world today has many distinct features, the most prominent
of which are:
1. An acceleration of history: the total amount of knowledge
accumulated in the world doubles each 7 or 8 years. Every two
minutes, there is a new scientific article published somewhere in
the world.
2. There is an increasing complexity arising from this
accelerated pace of history.
3. A shrinking of time and space.
4. We are moving from a production-based society into a
knowledge-based society where human resources are becoming more
important than raw materials (whose price is in constant down
fall) and where capital is no longer sufficiently profitable
unless it is accompanied by "added values" -
intellectual input and innovation. To get an idea of the speed at
which history is moving and the scope of the changes brought
about as well as their implications - especially with respect to
human resources -one should read a survey conducted by the
Spanish Ministry of Higher Education in which it is said, among
other conclusions, that training provided by post-secondary
educational institutions does not cater for half of the jobs
which will be on the labor market by the year 2000.
5. The role of culture is on the increase. During the first
North-South panel sponsored by the Society for International
Development (SID) in Rome in May 1978, I pointed out that the
most determining aspect in North-South relations was the cultural
aspect in that it concerned the values which determine the
attitudes of individuals and societies:
"We must address the question of value systems as a matter
of priority in order to show that the current crisis between the
North and the South cannot be overcome merely through adjustment
efforts. In fact, the crisis affects the system as a whole. Any
solution therefore requires that the objectives, functions and
structures be reconsidered. It also calls for redistribution of
power and resources according to values and criteria which must
be different from those which brought about the collapse of the
current system."
6. Whereas the South population is young and growing fast, that
of the North has been stabilized and is ageing. (50% of the
Muslim population is under 16 and more than 60% under 30).
7. Advanced technologies such as computer science, cybernetics,
robotics, artificial intelligence, space technology and
biotechnology are thriving in an industrial sector which devotes
8% to 12% of its turnover to Research and Development, and almost
as much to staff training. The so-called "transfer of
technology" is a hoax which consists in palming off obsolete
products on the South at unjustifiably prohibitive prices.
Control of technology requires internally expended efforts and
endogenous research. This is not a commodity which can be
purchased or sold. It is rather a long process which is based on
knowledge and creativity.
8. Information and communication are an ever expanding activity
which now accounts for over 40% of the world's industrial output
and 60% of the labor force. The gap between the North and the
South is incredibly wide, with the North controlling over 85% of
information-related activities. We have hardly begun to
understand the political, economic, social and cultural impact of
this sector.
9. There is need for economic integration and the establishment
of economically viable entities. No economic community with less
than 150 million inhabitants can make it successfully into the
21st century. (Europe (EEC): 350 millions; North America: 350
millions; South-East Asia: 350 million.)
10. Culture, in its full acceptation, is the most strategically
important element in the relation between nations. More than
political and economic problems, those related to cultural
communication are likely to generate conflicts in the future.
11. The assumption that modernity equals westernization has
turned out to be unfounded. This is best evidenced by the
Japanese experience. The Nippon Institute for Research
Advancement, NIRA, published a report in 1989, entitled"
Agenda for Japan in the 90s." Here is an excerpt which I
quote quite often:
"It has become necessary to look at the world system
differently, to put aside a long sustained view of world order
based on stratification under American rule. The new world order
may be called the "Age of Diverse Civilizations", based
on the emergence of an age with multiple co-existing
civilizations. Although Westernization led to progress on a
worldwide basis in terms of material civilization, Japan's
modernization served as evidence that modernization is difference
from westernization."
12. There is a tendency for the "immaterialization of
matter" and the "materialization of the
immaterial". Less and less raw materials go into industrial
products. Conversely, the "grey matter" input generates
more and more added value. One example of such
"immaterialization" is the increasing utilization of
optical fiber which led to a sharp decrease in the use of copper
in miniaturized devices, micro-processors and electronic chips,
etc. The economy is said to be getting more and more immaterial.
In addition, "new" scientific branches like particle
physics, molecular biology and neurophysiology have developed and
expanded to the extend that Newton's conventional physics is
being challenged on the grounds that it is basically mechanical
physics and that it fails to explain all the phenomena that are
observable in the universe. Similarly, Descartes' rationalism is
being criticized as an obstacle to the understanding of phenomena
which do not fall within the rigid scope of Descartes'
"method". The consequence is that there is no longer a
clear cut demarcation line between the material and immaterial
realms.
How can one claim to be a Muslim when one is not in a position to
comply even with the first injunction from Allah. Indeed, the
first Quranic verse calls on Muslims to "...read in the name
of thy Lord..." and yet the majority of Muslims have no
direct access to the Holy Book but through intermediaries?
One of the great merits of Islam lies precisely in the fact that
it abolished the notion of clergy thus making it possible for the
believer to communicate directly with God. Is the scourge of
illiteracy still plaguing us just because we cannot afford the
necessary means to eradicate it? or is it because there is no
political will to fight it? Or maybe because some rulers are
afraid that an educated Muslim society might bring about dramatic
changes in the way the Muslim community is being ruled and
managed?
Since 1901, 540 Nobel Prizes have been awarded so far. Although I
have reservations about the selection and nomination procedures
which have been applied, I must point out that only three Muslims
so far have been awarded the Noble Prize (Abdus Salam, Anouar
Al-Sadate and Naguib Mahfuz). They account for merely 0.05% of
the total number of winners. Yet those three belong to a
community which accounts for over 20% of the world population.
The fact is that we have failed to develop our human resources
which are the most valuable asset for any society and will be
even more so in the future. Worse still is the fact that we are
affording the luxury of holding back the emancipation of half the
Muslim population, that is the 500 million or more women who are
subjected to anti-Islamic policies in complete disregard for the
prescriptions of the Quran which caters for all the rights of
women. This is one of the most serious and pressing problems
which must be dealt with promptly and efficiently in the Muslim
world.
B. Main aspects of the backwardness of the Islamic world
Under-development is the major feature of the Islamic world.
These are some of its aspects:
1) Economic and socio-cultural data on the Islamic world are
unavailable. The best data banks and research programs on Islam
are to be found in the industrialized nations. What is striking
is that quite a few of these activities are funded by
"donations" from our own countries. Another disturbing
fact is that we are so poorly informed about our own affairs that
it was the Vatican who published in the early 80s the first
estimates about the size of the Muslim population on the basis of
a survey for which it had mobilized 600 people for 10 years in
not less than 200 countries and territories.
2) Our recent history is still colonized. Our present is, for the
major part, beyond our control. Even our future is now mortgaged
because we tend to rely blindly and unreservedly on scenarios and
surveys which are drawn up and doled out to us by others. The
chances are that our future might become but a distorted and
useless image of the others' past. The stark reality is that the
Muslim world has no control over its destiny and that in many
areas it enjoys only nominal independence. In short,
decolonization is still a remote target. It will take decades
before it materializes.
Another distressing evidence of our resignation with respect to
our own future is the publication 108 years ago by British
orientalist W.C. Blunt of a book entitled "The future of
Islam." It was not until 1985, that is 103 years later, that
a Muslim from Pakistan, named Ziauddin Sardar, issued a similar
book in London, entitled "Islamic Futures."
3) One of the greatest handicaps of the Islamic world nowadays
lies in the fact that the ruling elite has no clear vision of the
future and its requirements. For it is unaware of the currents of
thought that shape today's reality and insensitive to the major
preoccupations of the population. On the other hand, it is afraid
that any move or initiative by a segment of society might impair
or restrict its privileges, its authority and its influence.
Other related shortcomings and drawbacks include a tendency for
blind imitation of the West and for docile compliance with
"recommendations" coming from foreign intelligence
sources and with "directives" issued by advisors sent
to us by protecting powers both from the East and the West. In
addition, there is no willingness to consult the population, seek
its views or accommodate its aspirations. The citizen is kept
away from the decision making process. He has no saying in the
shaping of programmes and policies which might be instrumental in
dealing with the growing challenges, and achieving possible and
desirable objectives as well as developing a civil society with
the necessary legal safeguards.
Our rulers' attention is focused on the slightest move by their
opposition, convinced as they are, that it is intent on toppling
them and removing them from power. So much so that when it comes
to tackling the ills of society they can only improvise patchwork
solutions and soothing measures with no lasting effect. In fact
they deliberately avoid any long term planning and concentrate
their efforts on time-winning devices and fool themselves with
the illusion that they are vigilant enough to foresee the
oncoming changes and deal with them as they arise.
4) Illiteracy rates in Islamic countries are the highest in the
world. In some of them they are as high as 80%. In most of them
they are not lower than 50%. The situation is getting more
serious as there are no effective literacy programmes underway.
Worse still is the fact that a new type of illiteracy is emerging
amongst literates who were subjected to brain-washing and turned
into ignorants, totally unaware of what is going in their country
and their surrounding. Therefore there is no hope for the Islamic
world to improve its condition in the future unless it resolves
to wage an effective war against illiteracy by implementing a
five-year programme and mobilizing all energies and good will
forces to eradicate this scourge for ever. But for the time being
the sad reality is that the schooling rate is very low and the
number of educational institutions, training centers, libraries,
hospitals and publishing houses is far too inadequate.
5) The quasi-absence of scientific research - Scientific research
requires a sound academic environment and a solid educational
base as well as genuine freedom of expression which fosters
creativity and innovation. Unfortunately, scientific research in
the Islamic world, and in the Third World at large, is attracting
only nominal interest and hardly any investment at all. As a
result, the brain-drain phenomenon is on the increase with more
and more scientists leaving for other countries either in search
of better job opportunities or because their initial environment
was not propitious for career development and
self-accomplishment.
In this connection, I would like to make it clear that there can
be no development of scientific research and, therefore, no
progress, without the full restoration of the tradition of the
"Ijtihad" (investigative and innovative effort). But
the "Ijtihad" approach must be understood and accepted
as a modern exercise which preserves the fundamental tenets of
Islam and discards all obstacles, new and old alike, which have
hindered the emancipation of the Muslim community and kept it in
a state of decadence and backwardness. In addition to
"Ijtihad", it is essential to provide for the
establishment and unrestricted exercise of political pluralism
and civil liberties.
6) The worsening crisis of socio-cultural values : most our
leaders are suffering from a shaky and dwindling credibility.
There is considerable improvisation, carelessness and nepotism in
the way they run their country's economy. Bribery amongst them is
almost standard practice. Their massive bank transfers abroad -
which is hardly a secret - are not only an insurance policy
against adversity, but also an efficient tool to manipulate
internal policies from the outside. Hence a collapse of moral and
ethical values.
7) Exogenous development models : Development planning in our
countries is based on blind imitation of the West and heavy
dependence on Western assistance. It is sad to note that policy
makers in the Islamic world make no allowance for science and
technology in their development schemes. They just seem to forget
that development is not merely programme for distributing revenue
and providing services. "Development is when science becomes
culture" ("Le developpement est la science devenue
culture") as it was put by Rene Maheu, former Director
General of UNESCO.
8) Insufficient respect for the rule of law and lack of
safeguards for the protection of civil liberties and human
rights: too many islamic countries live under political systems
where power is monopolized and where freedom of opinion and of
speech are restricted. Where repression, denial of basic rights
and violation of human dignity are the daily lot of the citizen,
there is no hope to create a favorable environment for the
development of human resources and knowledge and for the
advancement of society as a whole. The right to speak, to express
one's difference, to innovate, to create and to publish one's
findings, will remain but an illusion so long as we have not
ensured respect for human rights and for the rule of law.
9) The condition of woman in our societies is alarming : The
essential role of women in development is not fully recognized.
In hampering the advancement of women we are doing no less than
preventing the emancipation of half our society. It is a crime
that we should keep more than half a billion of our fellow
citizens in such precarious conditions. If the Muslim society is
essentially a backward one, it is mainly because we have confined
women into a marginal role.
As we are addressing the issue of Islam and its prospects, we
must make it clear that it is a shame that some practices, lies
and other vestiges from bygone times which were motivated by the
thirst and struggle for power are still prevailing in our
society.
I, myself, am not a specialist of Islamic law. But I did consult
qualified experts on the status of women in Islam. They maintain
quite clearly that a number of impostors had forged the Prophet's
hadiths (texts) or written new ones and claimed they were of the
Prophet's doing. Those forged texts, they explained, were taken
up by some pseudo religious scholars who kept relating them until
nowadays. In so doing, they are distorting the true image of
Islam and hindering progress and development in their own
society.
One such allegation consists in telling men that they can consult
women but should never act upon their advice. For Hadith
specialists, to attribute such an allegation to the Prophet, is
sheer lie. Another so-called Hadith which was fabricated and
spread by tyrants and impostures to suit their own purposes and
hold back the thrust of the Muslim community, claims that when
the Prophet was asked by his daughter about the most suitable
thing a woman can do, he allegedly answered that "she should
see no man and arrange for no man to see her." This is a
fictitious hadith and a total fabrication which has nothing to do
with the Prophet, especially that it is in blatant contradiction
with Quranic prescriptions.
When we consult reference books on Hadith and read the writings
of specialized commentators on the Prophet's deeds and sayings,
we realize that a large number of women were legal experts in
Islamic law, custodians and relaters of Hadith or even soldiers
fighting side by side with men to uphold the banner of Islam. To
give but one example, Karima Bint Ahmed from Marw, knew by heart
the whole corpus of the "Sahih" of Al Bukhary. She
received praise and recognition for her outstanding achievement,
from Hafiz Ibn Hajjar Ashkalani, in his famous book on the work
of "Al Bukhary" entitled "Al Fath Al Barry."
I do not wish to dwell too long on this subject, but I hope that
the distinguished scholars who are with us today will enlighten
the audience with the Prophet's sayings and deeds calling for
women to be respected, honored and treated on equal footing with
men in the spiritual field as well as in earthly matters and
dealings.
Another evidence of the marginal status of women is the fact that
there are hardly any women attending this symposium. I kept
telling the sponsors of this gathering that it was necessary to
provide for equal representation of women in this meeting,
especially that we are discussing the future of the entire Muslim
community. I reminded them that during his "Farewell
pilgrimage" just before he died, the Prophet had called on
his community "to treat women well." What good will it
do us to keep her chained in ignorance and confined in a marginal
status with hardly any role to play in public life?
I must emphasize that there is no future for Islam without
effective involvement of women in the community's affairs. There
is no prospect for any Muslim society which will continue to deny
women the rights granted to her by Islam. I believe that this
matter demands urgent attention and consideration from all those
who care about the future of the Islamic community and who wish
to stimulate our potentialities and creativeness so that we may
grasp and cope with the current problems and the challenges
ahead.
The condition of women leaves much to be desired throughout the
world, particularly in under-developed countries where this
condition reflects the strong relationship which exists between
the economic and socio-cultural aspects of development, on one
hand, and the protection of public liberties and human rights, on
the other. Within the Islamic world, Arab countries are even
worse off than the others in the fields of education and
scientific research.
Women's condition in the Islamic world, and more particularly in
Arab countries, is a real challenge for all of us. It calls for
serious social surveys and analyses, and requires a great deal of
self-criticism as well as the rehabilitation and mobilization of
"Ijtihad" resources. We must take a fresh look at the
original sources of our culture, and read again and more
carefully, in the light of modern developments, the teachings of
the Quran. I am sure we will end up with a deeper understanding
of the nature and scope of our problems. We will also come out
with a clear vision of the solutions which are needed in the
short and medium term in order to cope with the demands and
challenges arising from the fast running movement of history.
I strongly believe that the status of women is one of the most
pressing and challenging issues with which we are confronted
today. We must stand up to the challenge at once, and look for
appropriate solutions by relying on ourselves, by using our own
resources, by mobilizing all good will forces and by refraining
from imposing on women any conditions other than those required
of men.
C. Problems requiring urgent solutions
a) Muslim minorities : There are Muslim minorities which are
fighting for survival within larger domineering groups. Some of
them found themselves isolated following the sudden interruption
of a merger-process with other segments of larger communities.
Others stayed behind and clung to their land after the ebbing of
Islamic civilization in which they used to thrive. Another
category of Muslim minorities is made up of those who felt like
aliens in their own countries and preferred to emigrate and look
for a decent life in foreign lands.
Islamic minorities include Muslim workers who emigrated to
Western Europe, Muslim populations in the East-Asian Republics of
the USSR, and millions of other Muslims in India, China and the
Philippines. If we really care about the development and
prosperity of the Islamic world, we must think seriously about
the present condition and the future prospects of these
minorities, and provide them with the necessary help to preserve
their identity and their cultural heritage.
b) The Palestinian issue : This question is of strategic
importance for the whole Islamic world. To liberate the
Palestinians from the sufferings they are enduring from
occupation is more than just a moral obligation for all of us. We
have no alternative but to pool our resources and unite our
forces to stand up to this challenge.
I do not believe we can achieve this objective merely through
diplomatic niceties of the "Camp David" style. Let us
not forget the daily acts of terrorism and repression perpetrated
against the Palestinians throughout the so-called "occupied
territories," including Jerusalem.
Israel is afraid of the future. She will have no rest until each
one of her neighbors has been neutralized and reduced to
impotence. With unconditional support from the West, particularly
the United States, Israel has managed to build up nuclear
capabilities and to control space technology. In the meantime, we
have remained virtually idle, particularly in these two
particular fields, although we know that 45% of the world uranium
belong to Islamic countries.
III. PROSPECTS
The main feature of the international order nowadays is the
increasing imbalance between North and South, with the former
controlling 80% of the planet's resources although it accounts
for only 20% of the world population. Such a blatant injustice
against 80% of the world population cannot go on indefinitely.
The West simply cannot afford to carry on with the same pattern
of industrial development while ignoring the deteriorating
situation in the South. It will have to reduce its consumption of
energy by approximately 20%, in the 10 to 15 years to come.
Over-utilization by the West of the biosphere - which is a vital
environment - has reached intolerable limits and caused serious
concern about the very survival of mankind.
Although the UN General Assembly adopted at its recent special
session on development, a resolution in support of development
policies, we know from a 30-year experience that such policies
are inefficient and counter-productive.
I had meant, in this presentation, to address the question of
what I call international hypocrisy where governmental agencies
from both the North and the South, are the real culprits. I was
also going to address the question of South-South cooperation by
pointing out the fact that it is virtually at a standstill and
that the South's dependence on the North is higher than ever
before. It was also my intention to speak of the role of Muslims
in prospective studies.
However, I decided to confine this presentation to some of the
most serious challenges facing the Islamic community. Additional
data and statistics on the Islamic world are attached to the
present text (see tables and graphs at the end of this chapter).
The population of the Islamic world is reckoned to be at least
one billion strong. By the year 2020, it will reach between 1.635
and 1.850 billion, that is approximately 25% of the world
population. These figures call for two important remarks:
1. The size of Muslim population is steadily on the increase.
This prospect is a source of serious concern for the West and the
Vatican who have been closely monitoring the demographic trends
in the Islamic world since Muslims outnumbered catholics for the
first time in 1985. The following figures may explain why there
is so much vigilance and concern about the demographic factor:
a. the size of the Muslim population will be equal or even
superior to that the world population in 1830;
b. In 30 years, there will be as many Muslims as there were
inhabitants in the world at the beginning of this century;
c. According to Western sources, in 1980 the population of
Judaeo-Christian background represented 31% of the world
population as against 18% for Muslims. In 2025, the trend is
expected to be reversed with 25% for the Judaeo-Christians and
33% for Muslims. Projections for the end of this century put the
ratio at 20% and 40% respectively. According to this trend,
Muslims, after 4 or 5 generations, will account for 50% of the
world population.
2. The Western population is increasingly aging. Consequently, it
will be necessary within the 10 coming years to bring in more
immigrants, preferably young and highly qualified, who will help
the West maintain its comfortable living standards. But the West
is even more worried by the youth of Muslim population. However,
they are our best asset and must do everything to cater for their
needs and provide them with adequate education and training.
3. The crisis we are going through is basically due to lack of
vision and of a common project for society, on the part of a
ruling class which tends to ignore or neutralize those who have
the qualifications, the ability and the willingness to contribute
to redressing the situation. Some of the educated alike have
become culturally alienated in their own country. Others, out of
self-imposed censorship, have confined themselves into silence
and indifference. The rest have just given themselves up to the
best bidders.
4. This is also a spiritual and ethical crisis reflecting the
citizen's disarray in the face of contradictory value systems:
one is static and unable to adjust to the new developments and
challenges, the other is alien and inconsistent with the
requirements of the new environment. This dichotomy probably
explains why our youth feel at a loss and are so suspicious
toward the older generation.
5. There is a wide vacuum in our society and alien currents of
thought are trying to sneak in and fill it up. One such intruders
is the "francophonia sect" which is being preached in
the Maghreb region by zealous advocates who are intent on erasing
our language and culture only to replace them with an exogenous
language which is spoken by hardly 4% of the world population.
Under the circumstances we have no alternative but to mobilize
our resources and do everything in our power to redress the
situation and pave the way for a more secure future. All Muslims,
be they in the East or in the West, must endeavour to fill up the
existing cultural vacuum. For it is said that nature does not
tolerate vacuum.
Symposium on "the Future of the Islamic World",
Algiers, 4-7 May, 1990.
Mahdi
Elmandjra
E-mail
* Asharq Al Awsat, 5/6/90, London
* L'Opinion, 6/5/90, Rabat
* Al Masaa, 5,6,8/4/90, Algiers
* Algérie actualité,10/5/90
* Algerian television, 5/90
* L'Eveil, 4/91, Algiers
* Al Mustaqbal Al Islami, 1/91
* Al Alam, 9/6 & 12/7/91,Rabat
* Al Kachkoul, 08/07/91, Rabat
Table 1 : Data on book production
------- -----------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------
(YEAR 1987) Industrialized Muslim countries countries Ratio
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Total number published books 612.000 25.000 25 to 1
Book titles published
per million inhabitants 510 50 10 to 1
Consumption of paper
per inhabitant (kilos) 40 2 20 to 1
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 2 : Data on Future Studies
-------- ----------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------
(YEAR 1989) Industrialized Muslim countries countries Ratio
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Organizations & associations 500 13 40 to 1
Listed specialists & researchers 2500 40 60 to 1
Number of major research projects 750 15 50 to 1
Books & Reports published 1100 25 45 to 1
Magazines & Periodicals 160 4 40 to 1
Educational films 650 0 --------
University Courses 350 5 70 to 1
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 3 : MUSLIM POPULATION IN THE WORLD (1986)
------- -------------------------------------
& PROJECTIONS FOR THE YEAR 2020
-------------------------------
_________________________________________________________________
| | | |
| | POPULATION | POPULATION |
| R E G I O N S | 1986 | 2020 |
| | (MILLIONS) | (MILLIONS) |
|____________________|________________________|__________________|
| | | |
| North Africa | 110 | 220 | | West Africa | 80 | 140 |
| Central Africa | 8 | 15 |
| East Africa | 40 | 80 |
| South Africa | 2 | 5 |
|________________________________________________________________|
| | | |
| TOTAL AFRICA | 240 | 460 |
|____________________|________________________|__________________|
|
| Middle Asia | 315 | 500 |
| S.E. Asia | 150 | 240 | | Far East | 50 | 80 | | Arab Middle
Asia | 80 | 140 |
|____________________|________________________|___________________
| | | |
| TOTAL ASIA | 595 | 960 |
|_________________________________________________________________
| | | |
| Turkey | 50 | 80 |
| W. Europe | 8 | 15 |
| E. Europe | 9 | 15 |
| U.S.S.R | 55 | 90 |
|_________________________________________________________________
| | | |
| TOTAL EUROPE | 122 | 200 |
|____________________|________________________|___________________
| | | |
| TOTAL AMERICA | 8 | 15 |
|________________________________________________________________|
| | | |
| WORLD TOTAL | 965 | 1635 |
|____________________|________________________|__________________|
© 
Genève 1996. Webeditor